The ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga are key hubs for the export of sour crude oil from Siberian fields in Russia. Previously, the main flow of this oil was transported via the Druzhba pipeline; however, after Ukraine closed the transit and Europe refused supplies, the logistics of export changed.
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The Strategic Role of Primorsk and Ust-Luga Ports in the Russian Oil Export Scheme
Along the pipeline route are also the Yaroslavl and Kirishi oil refineries, which use part of the raw material for the production of petroleum products. The overall distribution of oil extraction looks like this:
- Primorsk Port — about 1 million barrels per day;
- Ust-Luga Port — 0.7 million barrels per day;
- Druzhba Pipeline through Ukraine — 0.2 million barrels per day;
- Kirishi Oil Refinery — 0.4 million barrels per day;
- Yaroslavl Oil Refinery — 0.3 million barrels per day.
“In total — 2.6 million b/d of crude oil from a total production of 9.2 million b/d, or 28%. Redirecting such a volume to other sources is simply impossible. After filling all available capacities, Russia will be forced to shut down production.”
The Goal of Blocking Exports and Consequences for Russia’s Oil Industry
Experts believe that a prolonged blockage of oil exports and processing through these ports could force Russia to significantly reduce production, especially at a number of fields. With the current production level at 9.2 million barrels per day, even a reduction of 1–2 million barrels would be a significant blow to Russia’s oil industry. A reduction of 2 million barrels per day is considered optimal for the Ukrainian side, which could lead to substantial financial losses for the Russian economy.
Achieving such a result is only possible under conditions of blocking oil exports for several months, which would become a powerful tool for pressure on Russia and limit its ability to finance further military actions.