The Ukrainian oil industry is under pressure due to a record low sunflower harvest in 2025. The imbalance between processing capacities and the volumes of seed supply could reach 10.2 million tons. This will lead to fierce competition among factories for raw materials and a significant reduction in margins for companies in the sector.
This is reported by Finway
Sunflower Shortage Affects Factory Operations
According to the agricultural holding “Kernel,” this year’s sunflower harvest in Ukraine is expected to be only 11.4 million tons — the lowest volume in the last decade. Due to this situation, nearly half of the national processing enterprises may remain underloaded. Analysts believe that companies able to temporarily switch to processing other oilseeds, such as soybeans and rapeseed, will be able to navigate the season more stably.
“The market has never faced such a significant shortage, which may leave nearly half of the national processing capacities underutilized.”
In July-September 2025, the agricultural holding “Kernel” processed 559 thousand tons of oilseeds, which is 18% less compared to the same period last year. Sunflower remained the main crop for processing.
Corn Exports Show Growth
At the same time, according to analysts from ASAP Agri, Ukraine may finish the 2025-2026 export season with a significant surplus of corn — up to 5 million tons. This surplus is due to increased yields, delays in harvesting, and intensified competition in the global market. The total export potential for Ukrainian corn this year is estimated at 24.5 million tons.