Ukraine is gradually losing its position as a leading global exporter of sunflower oil. This year’s sunflower harvest has not only been lower in volume but also poorer in quality, negatively impacting the country’s export potential.
This is reported by Finway
Declining Harvest and Competition with Russia
In recent years, Ukraine has faced a decrease in sunflower yield. According to Sunstone Brokers partner Serhiy Repetsky, the volumes of sunflower cultivation have decreased by 35%, while Argentina has increased its harvest by 43% over the past two years, and Russia by 20%. At the same time, Russians are actively pushing Ukrainian oil out of key export markets, particularly China and India, where Ukraine is no longer a leader.
“We no longer dictate prices anywhere except Europe. We are no longer number one in China, Turkey, or India. We need to slightly ‘take off the crown’ because many still think that the entire global sunflower oil market depends on Ukrainian products. The Argentine harvest has increased by 43% over the last two years, the Russian by 20%, while Ukraine has lost 35% of its sunflower harvest,” states Repetsky.
In the 2024/2025 season, Russia may harvest 17.5–18 million tons of sunflower, and its oil export is estimated at 4.5 million tons — almost as much as Ukraine exports. For the marketing year from July 2024 to June 2025, Ukraine exported 4.73 million tons of sunflower oil.
Deterioration of Harvest Quality and Changes in Agricultural Production Structure
The chief trader at Getreide AG Ukraine, Kostyantyn Taranov, notes that this year’s sunflower harvest was initially estimated at 13.5 million tons, but the actual volume will not exceed 10 million tons, which is even less than last year’s 10.2 million tons. Additionally, the harvest is characterized by increased moisture, which raises farmers’ drying costs, as well as high acidity on 8% of unharvested areas, which deteriorates oil quality.
This year’s seed oil content has also decreased: if last year it was at a record level of 50–52%, it is now projected to be 48–50%. A prolonged decline in demand for sunflower is observed worldwide, as palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils gradually displace sunflower oil from the international market.
In the 2024/2025 season, sunflower harvest in Ukraine has decreased by 20% compared to the previous season, marking the worst performance in the last eight years. At the same time, exports of Ukrainian sunflower oil have decreased by 24%.
The National Bank of Ukraine significantly worsened its forecast for oilseeds for 2025 at the end of October. It is expected that farmers will increasingly prefer to grow grains and legumes, particularly corn, and this trend will continue at least until 2027.