Analysts warn of a significant decline in Ukrainian sunflower yields in 2026, pointing to the negative impact of weather conditions for the second consecutive season. According to their estimates, the yield of this strategic oilseed crop will fall to levels not seen since 2014.
This is reported by Finway
Record Low Export Volumes and Market Changes
In the first four months of the current season, Ukraine exported only 12,000 tons of sunflower, the lowest figure in the last two decades. Meanwhile, nearly all harvested sunflowers are processed domestically into value-added products, primarily sunflower oil.
However, export volumes of this product remain low. Experts cite delays in harvesting, farmers’ reluctance to sell, and Russian shelling of logistics infrastructure as the main reasons. From September to December 2025, only about 1.3 million tons of sunflower oil were shipped abroad, while in previous years this figure reached 2 million tons. A similar situation is observed in the sunflower meal segment.
The Impact of the Energy Crisis on the Processing Industry
Rising energy prices in Ukraine are putting additional pressure on the processing industry. The cost of processing sunflowers is increasing, making it difficult for factories to maintain high purchasing prices for farmers throughout the season. Currently, Ukrainian enterprises are willing to pay $550–560 per ton of raw material.
“The weather is having an extremely negative impact on the yield of Ukrainian sunflowers for the second consecutive season, so the yield of the crop will fall to levels not seen since 2014.”
Thus, the prospects for the sunflower market in Ukraine remain challenging for both producers and exporters due to declining yields, logistical difficulties, and rising energy costs.