In Ukraine, despite an 18% decrease in raw milk prices since the beginning of the year, the cost of dairy products in supermarkets remains consistently high. Experts attribute this to logistical costs, significant retail markups, and processors’ caution regarding pricing policies.
This is reported by Finway
Price Dynamics of Dairy Products in 2025
Oksana Zupinas, Deputy General Director and Head of Processing Cooperation Projects at the Dairy Producers Association, explained that the price of raw milk in Ukraine decreased by 18% from January to March 2025. In June, there was a slight further decrease of about half a percent. This trend is attributed to uncertainty regarding export quotas in cooperation with the EU, which has influenced processors’ caution.
Despite this, consumers do not notice significant price reductions on store shelves. The price of 2.6% milk (900 ml) across various chains is as follows:
- “Novus” – 47.99 UAH
- “Fora” – 57.60 UAH
- bottled – from 52.50 to 60.49 UAH
Kefir 2.5% in a bottle costs between 58.30 and 72.99 UAH, sour cream ranges from 53 to 59 UAH, cottage cheese (350 g) is priced from 89.99 to 99.99 UAH, butter 82.5% (180 g) costs between 107 and 128 UAH, and hard cheese sometimes exceeds 90 UAH for 100 g.
Reasons for Pricing Policy and the Impact of Imports
The situation in the market is somewhat different: 2.6% milk costs about 40 UAH, sour cream is priced at 39-40 UAH, cheese starts from 60 UAH, butter from 70 UAH, and hard cheese starts from 400 UAH/kg (i.e., 40 UAH for 100 g).
“Marketing and packaging in supermarkets account for 20-30% of the final price; logistics, labor costs, and rent are all included in the price; retail markups: supermarkets maintain high margins even during periods of declining purchase prices; processors’ fear of potential changes in export policy restrains the decrease in wholesale prices.”
Zupinas also emphasized that in the first half of 2025, cheese imports to Ukraine increased by 47% compared to the pre-war period. This creates additional pressure on Ukrainian producers, who are forced to compete with imported products. If processing enterprises cease operations, farmers may find themselves without a market for their milk, threatening a crisis in the industry.
Experts predict a slight increase in purchase prices for dairy raw materials in August; however, prices will remain lower than at the end of 2024. It is expected that negotiations with the European Commission may improve the situation, but currently, the main reason for stable prices in stores remains the peculiarities of retailers’ pricing policies, rather than a shortage of raw materials.