The National Bank of Ukraine has presented an updated forecast regarding the dynamics of citizens’ incomes for the coming years. According to the regulator, after a significant increase in the average nominal wage by 23.2% last year, from 2025 to 2027, wages will continue to grow at a faster pace compared to inflation, although the rate of this increase will significantly slow down.
This is reported by Finway
Wage Growth Dynamics and NBU Forecasts
According to the National Bank’s estimates, in 2025, the average nominal wage in Ukraine will increase by 19%, in 2026 by 13%, and in 2027 by 9.6%. The forecast for real wage growth, taking into account expected inflation, is 5.2% in 2025, 5.1% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027.
“The National Bank explains the wage growth by a structural labor force deficit caused by prolonged migration, mobilization, and regional imbalances.”
Challenges for the Labor Market and Economy
The National Bank warns that a prolonged labor shortage could become a serious factor hindering the country’s economic recovery. Even now, the uneven distribution of the workforce across different regions and sectors of the economy limits the production capabilities of Ukrainian businesses. According to the regulator’s experts, the return of labor migrants and the successful reintegration of veterans into the labor market are particularly important for balanced economic growth and inflation control in the future.