The real estate market in Ukraine is currently engaged in an active discussion regarding the future dynamics of housing prices. Experts are divided into two camps: some are convinced of the inevitable rise in the cost per square meter, while others see no grounds for price increases and predict either stability or even a decrease in prices.
This is reported by Finway
Arguments in favor of rising housing prices
Proponents of increasing housing costs cite several factors that contribute to this process. In particular, a significant reason is the rising cost of building materials and increased expenses for construction and installation work. This trend has persisted for several years, and experts believe that in the future, the price per square meter will only continue to rise.
“The cost of building materials has significantly increased due to inflation, logistical difficulties, and limited resource availability. For example, the price increase for materials has been around 35–45% compared to pre-war levels,” notes realtor Vitaliy Shokal.
According to the construction company Gazda, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, there has been an annual increase in the cost of materials and labor of at least 15–17%. Another important factor is the limited supply: due to risks and uncertainty, fewer people are willing to buy apartments, especially at the construction stage. This affects developers’ decisions—new projects are mostly initiated by large companies with sufficient financial reserves.
Evgen Favorsky, head of the Developers Association, points out that at the current pace of construction, it may take over 20 years to provide housing for those who lost it due to the war. Additional pressure on the market is created by internally displaced persons from frontline areas, who are moving en masse to western regions and large cities.
After the war ends, a significant increase in pent-up demand is expected, as many Ukrainians who are currently refraining from purchasing will invest their funds in housing. Managing partner of the DIM group of companies, Oleksandr Nasikovskyi, is convinced that in the first few years after victory, the shortage of square meters will remain significant, and demand will be high.
Factors contributing to a decrease in real estate prices
However, there are also arguments in favor of a possible decrease in prices. One of the key factors is low demand: according to the marketplace OLX Real Estate, last year, the demand for purchasing housing decreased by 3.1%. President of the Ukrainian Real Estate Professionals Association, Olena Haidamaka, notes that currently, there are no prospects for price increases for apartments, as there are very few buyers.
She emphasizes that most Ukrainians are in a wait-and-see mode—events on the front and the possibility of negotiations play an important role. In particular, even in western regions, where active construction is ongoing, prices have remained stable for about a year due to insufficient demand.
Experts also warn of the risk of escalating hostilities, which could further stall the market. If the war continues, buyers will expect significant discounts, especially in the secondary market. Another challenge for the market remains the availability of mortgages—currently, mortgages are mainly accessible through the state program “eOselya,” but this is insufficient for the full development of the sector.