The Ukrainian government is strengthening defensive measures along the northern borders following statements from President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi about a possible offensive by Russian troops from Belarusian territory. In Rivne, Zhytomyr, Volyn, as well as in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, preparations for defense have been intensified, checks are being conducted, and evacuation plans are being developed in case of escalation.
This is reported by Finway
Strengthening Borders and Military Assessments
After a recent visit to Rivne region, Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the northern regions of Ukraine are under threat of attacks from the Russian Federation, which may use the Belarusian direction for an offensive. He noted that “it is from there that the Russians are considering scenarios for additional attacks on Ukraine — against the northern regions, our Chernihiv-Kyiv direction.”
“It is from there that the Russians are considering scenarios for additional attacks on Ukraine — against the northern regions, our Chernihiv-Kyiv direction,” said the president.
At the same time, the Security Service of Ukraine and defense forces are conducting large-scale security measures in the northern part of the country. In border areas, document checks, movement restrictions, and vehicle inspections may occur. The head of the Kovel District Military Administration, Olha Cheren, reported that the borders of Volyn with Belarus have been strengthened, and evacuation plans have already been developed.
Oleksandr Syrskyi emphasized that the Russian General Staff is actively planning offensive operations from the north, so the front line may be extended. The military does not rule out the expansion of hostilities to additional directions.
Border Situation and Political Context
From the Belarusian side, it has been officially stated that the country has no intention of entering into a war against Ukraine, however, at the same time, targeted mobilization and preparation of the army for possible combat actions have been announced. However, according to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine as of May 24, no movement of military equipment or personnel, as well as an increase in the number of Russian or Belarusian military, has been recorded in the border territories.
Speaker of the State Border Guard Service Andriy Demchenko emphasized that the number of Belarusian units near the border has not changed since 2022, only military rotations are taking place, and there are currently no Russian infantry units capable of launching an invasion on Belarusian territory. Nevertheless, all regions from Volyn to Chernihiv remain a risk zone.
Experts note that rumors about a possible offensive from Belarus emerge every year before summer. This year, both the president and military command have officially announced the threat, so security measures are being strengthened in the regions. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov considers three possible scenarios of events: political (diverting public attention), military (preparation for possible actions on other fronts), and corruption (embezzlement of funds for the construction of defensive structures). He emphasizes that the strength of the border depends more on the work of border guards than solely on engineering structures.
Political Game and International Context
Political scientist Oleg Posternak noted that the current situation around the Belarusian direction is not only a military but also an informational, political, and psychological game. Despite the absence of signs of preparation for an offensive, the Ukrainian government and European partners may possess more detailed information that is currently not being disclosed publicly.
Posternak emphasized that the Belarusian army remains untested in combat, and it is unlikely that it can independently carry out a large-scale offensive. However, Belarus, as in 2022, may be used by Russia as a launchpad for attacks on Ukraine. The political scientist also points out that there was a certain balance between Kyiv and Minsk after the start of the full-scale war: Ukraine did not strike Belarusian territory, and Lukashenko’s regime did not allow new large-scale invasions. This balance may now change, and the informational activity surrounding the threat from Belarus may be part of a strategy to prevent a possible offensive or an attempt to influence Minsk’s international relations with the West.
The expert does not rule out that the leadership of Russia and Belarus may have certain agreements unknown to the public. At the same time, statements from Kyiv and European leaders regarding the threat from the north may be aimed at preventing a new wave of pressure on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, arrived in Kyiv for her first official visit, which also adds political weight to the events surrounding Belarusian-Ukrainian relations.