Analysts at 10x Research have released a detailed report on the prospects of including Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in the S&P 500 index. According to their assessment, the chances of the company making it onto the prestigious list range from 60% to 70%, provided that the financial results for the third quarter of 2025 are positive.
This is reported by Finway
Key Factors for Inclusion in the S&P 500
The experts’ report notes that the market, in general, demonstrates some pessimism regarding Strategy’s prospects. However, 10x Research believes that the company’s potential has not yet been exhausted.
“Capitulation always feels like the end until it quietly becomes a new beginning,” the authors noted.
Strategy is expected to release its financial report for the third quarter on October 30, 2025, which will reflect an unrealized profit from Bitcoin investments amounting to $3.8 billion. If the quarterly results turn out to be generally positive, this could act as a catalyst for further stock price growth and bring the question of including Strategy in the S&P 500 index back into focus in December 2025.
Stock Dynamics and Financial Performance of Strategy
In September, the company already qualified for inclusion in the index, but due to a number of factors, it was not included in the S&P 500. This followed a successful second quarter of 2025, when Strategy recorded over $14 billion in unrealized profit.
Previously, Strategy’s bonds received a credit rating from S&P Global Ratings. Although the rating was low—B-, the company became the first among Bitcoin treasury firms to undergo such a rating assessment.
Despite this, the stock price of Strategy has decreased by nearly 28% over the past six months.
Additionally, the mNAV (Market-to-Net Asset Value) ratio, which characterizes the value of DAT investments in crypto assets, has approached the threshold value of one several times but has not dropped below it.
Furthermore, Strategy has significantly reduced its Bitcoin purchasing volumes: in October, 778 BTC were acquired, which is 78% less compared to September 2025.
In previous studies, 10x Research estimated the total losses of DAT investors due to inflated premiums on shares of such companies at $17 billion.