According to estimates from the National Bank of Ukraine, inflation in the country reached its local peak in May 2025, rising to 15.1% year-on-year. The dynamics of food prices were significantly affected by spring frosts, which led to an increase in the prices of the first batches of vegetables and fruits from the new harvest.
This is reported by Finway
Dynamics and Causes of Inflation Growth
The head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshny, emphasized that core inflation, which showed some slowdown in April, accelerated again in May, remaining close to projected values. The main source of inflationary pressure during this period was stable consumer demand and further increases in production costs for businesses, particularly for wages.
Food products and non-alcoholic beverages played a significant role in the rapid price increase, rising by 19.8% over the year. The prices of vegetables and fruits saw the largest increases:
- cabbage – nearly 4 times, to 49.7 UAH/kg (an increase of 276%),
- carrots – to 38.96 UAH/kg (+223%),
- apples – to 46.35 UAH/kg (+88.5%),
- beets – to 27.99 UAH/kg (+57.25%).
Summer Forecast: Factors for Price Stabilization
At the same time, the National Bank forecasts that inflation will begin to gradually decrease for a wide range of goods and services by summer. According to Andriy Pyshny, this will be facilitated by the arrival of new harvests, improvements in the energy sector compared to last year, a decrease in global oil prices, a weakening of external price pressure, and the continued impact of the NBU’s monetary measures.
“At the same time, the trajectory of inflation slowdown in the coming months will largely depend on the impact of spring frosts and weather conditions in summer on the supply and prices of agricultural products,” noted the head of the regulator.
The NBU leadership has decided to maintain the discount rate at 15.5%. This step is intended to support the stability of the currency market, control inflation expectations, and contribute to the return of inflation to a path of sustainable decline.