The National Bank of Ukraine expects that in 2025, approximately 200,000 citizens of the country will leave Ukraine in search of better living and working conditions abroad. This is stated in the latest Inflation Report from the regulator. Analysts note that the outflow of the population will continue in 2026 at roughly the same level.
This is reported by Finway
Dynamics of Migrant Return and Labor Shortage
According to the NBU’s forecasts, a mass return of Ukrainian migrants is not expected before 2027. At that time, the net influx of returnees could amount to about 100,000 individuals. However, the speed of this process will primarily depend on the security situation in the country and the level of risks to life and work.
“The prolonged migration outflow and slow return of migrants will lead to a persistent labor shortage and significant unevenness across sectors and regions. This will hinder economic recovery and stimulate further wage growth at a faster pace than productivity growth, which will intensify inflationary pressure.”
Impact of Security Risks and Policies of Other Countries
The report emphasizes that an escalation of hostilities, an increase in shelling of rear areas, or the occupation of new territories could lead to an even greater outflow of Ukrainians. An important factor is also the policies of the governments of the countries receiving migrants. If they tighten measures to retain Ukrainian workers, this could deepen the labor shortage in Ukraine.
At the same time, an active policy by the Ukrainian government to encourage the return of migrants, as well as a rapid economic recovery and the creation of new jobs, could facilitate the return of citizens. Investments in the reconstruction of infrastructure and production can also help alleviate pressure on the labor market and reduce inflationary risks.