As of the second quarter of 2025, the growth rate of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) remains low. According to the State Statistics Service, compared to the same period last year, GDP increased by only 0.8%. For the first half of the year, this figure was 0.9%. Experts note that to achieve annual growth of over 2% or even approach 3%, the economy would need to demonstrate a growth of 3–4% in the second half of the year, which currently seems unlikely.
This is reported by Finway
Main Reasons for Economic Slowdown
Experts from the Center for Economic Strategy explain this dynamic by the influence of several key factors. First and foremost, the ongoing war has a significant negative impact: hostilities, shelling of industrial enterprises, infrastructure, and housing stock, the expansion of occupied territories, as well as a labor shortage, significantly restrain economic activity.
The second important factor is adverse weather, which has negatively affected yields for the second consecutive year. Combined with the effect of launching the maritime corridor last year, this has led to a reduction in export volumes and freight turnover.
Additionally, there is a decline in the extractive industry within the economic structure, which is related to the shutdown of mines in Pokrovsk.
Positive Trends and Development Drivers
“At the same time, metallurgical production has increased due to coal imports. Similarly, industries related to defense orders (weapons production, various types of machine engineering, etc.) have also grown.”
Despite the challenges, positive trends are supporting the economy. In particular, there is a stable increase in consumer demand, reflected in the growth of retail trade and passenger transportation. Construction of residential and non-residential properties has also intensified, further stimulating economic activity in the country.