The cost of gasoline and diesel fuel at Ukrainian gas stations may sharply increase — the price per liter could reach 100–150 UAH, depending on how long the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz lasts. This scenario is predicted by the founder of the Prime group of companies, fuel expert Dmytro Lyoshkin.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of the Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz on Fuel Prices
According to the expert, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, prices could rise to maximum levels. At the same time, Lyoshkin believes that in the case of a prolonged blockage, the USA and EU countries may start using strategic oil reserves, which would stabilize prices at around 100 UAH per liter. The expert is confident that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume within a month, after which prices will gradually fall to about 80 UAH per liter.
“It could reach 100-150 if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened. But I think that the USA and EU will sell oil from strategic reserves in that case, and the price will stabilize at 100,” the expert predicted, expressing confidence that shipping through the strait will be restored within a month.
Record Fuel Price Increase and Market Trends
Lyoshkin emphasized that the current increase in fuel prices in Ukraine is unprecedented: even during previous crises, such a rapid rise was not observed. He reminded that gasoline and diesel are currently available, but their prices continue to rise due to the increasing cost of oil and gas oil.
In the wholesale market, prices have already reached 68–70 UAH per liter, and some wholesalers are in no hurry to sell their stocks, expecting further price increases. Over the past day, prices jumped by 3 UAH, creating incentives to hold onto fuel for greater profits in the future.
Lyoshkin predicts that the price of gasoline and diesel in popular networks, including OKKO, may soon reach 85 UAH, but emphasizes that final figures cannot be determined yet.
Despite the absence of fuel shortages in Ukraine, the expert points out that the pricing formula takes into account the rising quotations of oil and gas oil. In particular, gas oil quotations on March 2 reached a two-year record, which is related to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, for which most oil refineries were unprepared.
A particular impact comes from the reduction in the supply of gasoline and diesel from Saudi Arabia, as well as the need to reconfigure refineries for other types of oil, which may take 5–6 months.
After the full restoration of shipping, prices should stabilize at around 80 UAH per liter, but according to the expert, a return to old prices should not be expected.
In summary, the expert noted:
“And everyone will forget that it was once 60. It was 60 – it will become 100, it will stop at 80,” he concluded.