European natural gas prices are experiencing a sharp increase amid the ongoing war in the Middle East, which is disrupting global energy supply chains. New risks to the market have emerged following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a decrease in production by leading oil-producing countries in the region.
This is reported by Finway
Record Price Increases and Supply Shortages
On Monday, March 9, European gas futures rose by 30% after oil prices surpassed the $100 per barrel mark. Currently, the price of gas in Europe is around 64 euros per megawatt-hour, which is significantly lower than the historical high but still one of the highest levels in recent times. In the Dutch market, futures for the next month jumped by 17% to 62.56 euros per megawatt-hour. Price increases are also observed in the American natural gas market, where prices have risen to the highest level in a month.
The military conflict surrounding Iran has now entered its tenth day, providing little reason for optimism regarding the stabilization of the situation. This creates additional uncertainty in energy markets and puts pressure on inflation. For Europe, the threat is particularly acute as it concludes winter with significantly reduced gas volumes in storage, forcing preparations for active purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the summer period.
LNG Supply Issues and Analyst Forecasts
Under current conditions, European countries are forced to compete with Asian buyers for limited LNG supplies. Of particular concern is the halt in liquefied natural gas production in Qatar at the Ras Laffan plant, which could significantly reduce the surplus supply in the global market.
“The market is gradually coming to terms with the reality of prolonged supply disruptions across the entire energy chain. We expect supply disruptions to last for about three months,” says Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmitt.
Experts note that if the halt in LNG production in Qatar extends beyond a month, there is a risk of a rapid shortage. The resumption of operations at the Ras Laffan plant is estimated to take anywhere from a few weeks to several months, further exacerbating uncertainty in the market.
In this context, analysts at Goldman Sachs have revised their gas price forecast for Europe for the second quarter of 2026, raising it to 63 euros per megawatt-hour from the previous 45 euros. The forecast is based on the expectation that LNG supplies from Qatar will remain suspended at least until the end of March, with the resumption of export flows gradually occurring throughout April.