Ukrainian bankers predict that in 2026, the average interest rates on loans may decrease by 1–1.5 percentage points, provided that inflation continues to slow down and the economy gradually recovers. However, the final dynamics of rates will largely depend on the security situation, the intensity of hostilities, and the consequences of the war for the country’s economy.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Credit Market
Banking experts note that the potential for further rate reductions is directly linked to macroeconomic stability and the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. The key factor is the discount rate, which has remained at 15.5% since March 2025. The regularity of macro-financial assistance from partner countries also remains an important factor, allowing for the balancing of the state budget and covering the gap between revenues and expenditures.
“There is potential for further rate reductions, but it is directly related to macroeconomic stability and the monetary policy of the NBU – specifically, the reduction of the discount rate, which shapes the cost of money (the discount rate has remained at 15.5% since March 2025). The overall dynamics of the economy and the regularity of macro-financial assistance from partner countries, which should cover the gap between revenues and expenditures and help balance the state budget, may also influence the level of credit rates.”
The key factors determining the situation in the credit market remain the development of state programs, competition among banking institutions, business demand for accessible credit resources, and the monetary policy of the NBU.
Forecast of Deposit Rates in 2026
Regarding deposit policy, experts expect that in 2026 it will largely be shaped by macroeconomic factors: the level of inflation, the effectiveness of monetary policy, and the situation in the currency market. It is forecasted that annual inflation will slow down to 6.6%. This creates conditions for the growing popularity of hryvnia deposits as a means of saving and increasing the population’s funds.
If current economic trends persist, a cautious reduction of the discount rate from 15.5% to 14–14.5% is possible, which will also affect other monetary instruments. Under these conditions, the average rates on hryvnia deposits for the population may decrease by 1 percentage point and will range from 13% to 13.5% per annum, depending on the term of the deposit placement.