In July 2025, the average price of Russian Urals oil was ₽4,701 per barrel, which is 11% lower than the planned budget target of the Russian Federation for the current year — ₽5,281 per barrel. The main factor behind this decline was a significant appreciation of the ruble: since the beginning of the year, the Russian currency has strengthened against the US dollar by nearly 45%. Additionally, the drop in global oil prices, which decreased by approximately 10% during this period, put further pressure on the budget revenues, negatively affecting the volume of ruble earnings for the aggressor country.
This is reported by Finway
Reduction in Energy Resource Production and Economic Opacity
During the first five months of 2025, Russia reduced its oil production to 211 million tons, which is 3.5% less than in the same period last year. Natural gas production also decreased by 3% — to 290 billion cubic meters. Despite this, Russia continues to operate its key energy project “Arctic LNG-2,” which is under sanctions.
As of mid-year, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation reached ₽3.69 trillion (approximately $47.3 billion), which constitutes 1.7% of GDP. In an effort to conceal the true state of affairs, the Russian authorities have classified about 80% of the information on the state open data portal, and some statistics are only published formally.
Search for Additional Revenues and Strict Austerity
Amid the worsening economic situation and falling oil prices, the Russian authorities are seeking new sources to replenish the budget. The head of the Federation Council’s budget committee suggests canceling some tax benefits, implementing large-scale privatization, postponing the implementation of certain national projects, and intensifying the fight against shadow employment and “envelope” salaries.
The head of the Federation Council’s budget committee sounds the alarm, stating that the authorities urgently need to find additional sources to fill the budget in light of the deteriorating economic situation and falling oil prices. He proposes canceling some tax benefits, conducting large-scale privatization, postponing the implementation of several national projects, and strengthening the fight against shadow employment and salaries “in envelopes.”
At the same time, the speaker of the Federation Council stated that the main task of the budget for 2026 should be “the strictest austerity” of state funds. The Minister of Finance of Russia confirmed that among the key priorities remain expenditures for the security forces and financing the war against Ukraine, while funding for several infrastructure projects is planned to be reduced or postponed.