In June 2025, it is expected that the exchange rate of the dollar will fluctuate between 41.6 and 42 hryvnias, while the euro will range from 45.5 to 47 hryvnias. The currency market during this period will be influenced by several important factors, each of which will have its significance, as explained by Taras Lesovyi, the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at “Globus Bank”.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate
One of the key factors is the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. According to Lesovyi, the NBU continues to adhere to a policy of managed flexibility, which helps avoid sharp fluctuations and maintain control over the market through currency interventions. With the decrease in inflationary pressure, the hryvnia will also receive some positive influence.
Additionally, the domestic economy, particularly the agricultural sector and industry, is actively developing, which positively impacts the formation of gross domestic product. Lesovyi noted: “Changes in the format of cooperation with the EU after the expiration of the ‘economic visa-free regime’ may affect export dynamics. Initially, there may be a certain decline in sales abroad, but an exception has been made for metallurgy — here, preferences are preserved. However, the country’s currency reserves are sufficient — $46.7 billion as of the end of April — so even in the case of short-term fluctuations, there will be no serious pressure.”
Impact of Exports and International Support
The expert also pointed out the potential “grain blockade” at the border with Poland. Although this situation is unlikely to critically affect Ukraine’s export capabilities, its possible consequences should not be underestimated. Any restrictions, whether artificial or objective, can negatively impact the volume of currency inflows.
Moreover, Lesovyi emphasized the importance of international financial support, noting that in 2025, Ukraine expects over $55 billion in assistance, of which $38+ billion will be directed specifically to cover the budget deficit. Some of the funds are likely to carry over to 2026. “Such a volume of resources allows for maintaining balance and preventing significant depreciation of the hryvnia,” he added.
Regarding exchange rate benchmarks, in June, the dollar is projected to fluctuate between 41.6 and 42 hryvnias, while the euro will range from 45.5 to 47 hryvnias. The annual average exchange rate set in the budget is 45 UAH/dollar, so the current slight increase appears quite predictable. The initial benchmark for 2025 is 42.02 UAH/dollar, which may become a reality very soon.
Lesovyi also noted that the euro exchange rate will largely be determined not by domestic factors but by global dynamics in the “euro-dollar” pair. “Currently, it is difficult to predict the behavior of these currencies — trade disputes between the US and the EU remain unresolved. Investors who fled from the dollar to the euro are in no hurry to return. At the same time, considering all possible economic vicissitudes, the exchange rate of 1 euro will equal 1.05–1.15 dollars. The lower limit is possible if trade relations normalize,” the banker concluded.