In Ukrainian banks, the cash dollar exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 41.5-42.2 UAH per dollar next week, from July 14 to 20. This forecast is based on current trends in the currency market, where exchange rate changes remain moderate.
This is reported by Finway
Exchange Rate Dynamics in Banks and Exchange Offices
On the evening of July 12, the average purchase rate for the dollar in Ukrainian banks was 41.5 UAH, while the selling rate was 41.95 UAH. Experts do not rule out a slight increase in the selling rate in the coming days. At the same time, an increase in the exchange rate is also anticipated in exchange offices, both for buying and selling. According to Taras Lesovyi, the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at Globus Bank, the exchange rate in exchange offices will remain within the same range as in banks – 41.5-42.2 UAH per dollar. As of the evening of July 12, the average purchase/sale rate for the dollar in exchange offices was 40.86/41.8 UAH, respectively.
Factors Influencing Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Weekly exchange rate fluctuations are expected to remain within the range of 1-1.5%. The difference between the buying and selling rates in banks will be 0.5-0.6 UAH, while in exchange offices it will be 0.6-1 UAH. A managed flexibility regime is in place in the currency market, allowing the National Bank to balance supply and demand through currency interventions.
“The dollar exchange rate will remain quite stable. At the same time, the managed flexibility regime will effectively neutralize any potential crisis phenomena, as the National Bank balances supply and demand through currency intervention mechanisms,” explained the current market situation, the banker said.
Taras Lesovyi emphasizes that the managed flexibility regime, which combines elements of regulation and free market, is effective in wartime conditions. Exchange rate changes caused by objective factors occur without sharp jumps. International reserves allow the National Bank to maintain stability by adjusting the volumes of currency interventions according to the situation.
According to experts, the likelihood of a sharp change in currency benchmarks remains low, and minor fluctuations in the dollar will not pose a significant threat to Ukraine’s financial system.