Analysts at investment research firm Bernstein predict significant growth in the US stablecoin market following the introduction of new regulatory rules. According to their analysis, Circle, which issues the USDC stablecoin, has every chance of becoming the main winner of the new regulatory policy regarding digital currencies.
This is reported by Finway
Market Growth Forecast and Circle’s Position
Bernstein expects that the market capitalization of USDC will reach $220 billion by the end of 2027, which is three times its current volume, and will account for approximately one-third of the global stablecoin market. The total market volume of stablecoins is expected to exceed $670 billion by 2027 and reach $4 trillion by 2035, according to experts.
“Digital dollars will become the monetary infrastructure of the internet, and Circle is in the best position due to its time advantage,” the experts stated, reaffirming their “above average” rating and a target price for Circle’s shares at $230, which is 67% higher than the figure as of October 14, 2025 ($137.47), according to Yahoo! Finance.
The new legislation passed in the US under the GENIUS Act creates a federal framework for so-called “payment stablecoins.” The law not only restricts the activities of foreign issuers but also classifies these tokens as digital money rather than securities or deposits, shifting the focus to domestic market players.
Circle’s Advantages and Market Structure
Circle already provides full coverage of reserves in cash and US government bonds, conducts daily reserve disclosures, and undergoes independent audits that meet stringent regulatory requirements. USDC is recognized as the “largest regulated stablecoin in the world,” making it attractive to banks and payment services looking for a reliable partnership infrastructure.
As of October 2025, Tether (USDT) remains the market leader with a 62% share (over $180 billion), while USDC holds about 29% ($76 billion). Other key players, such as USDe, DAI, and USD1, have significantly smaller capitalizations.
Circle’s model, focused on regulatory compliance and integration with major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and OKX, has provided the company with a liquidity advantage. USDC is integrated across 28 blockchains, and transaction volume in the first half of 2025 reached $3 trillion, which is 120% higher than the previous year.
Bernstein emphasizes that the growth of the stablecoin market is driven by the development of crypto capital markets and new use cases, including cross-border payments and remittances. Circle’s share of this market could amount to around $220 billion due to new integrations with companies like Fiserv, FIS, Corpay, and Shopify.
At the same time, new players, including PayPal (PYUSD) and the US division of Tether (USAT), face challenges of “low liquidity at launch” and insufficient integrations with exchanges.
Bernstein notes that Circle’s profitability largely depends on interest income from reserves. However, rates are expected to decline only to 3% by the end of 2027 (down from 4.25% currently), and this impact will be offset by growth in revenues from payments, cross-chain transfers, and infrastructure scaling.
Already, Circle’s share of non-financial income has increased from 1% in 2024 to 4% in the first half of 2025. Analysts forecast that the company’s revenue will grow by 47% annually until 2027, while the volume of USDC will increase by 71% per year.
In the long term, Bernstein estimates that the stablecoin market will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with USDC maintaining about 30% of the market thanks to the development of the Circle Payments Network and its own blockchain, Arc.