The World Bank predicts that in 2026, global commodity prices will reach their highest level in the last four years. The main reason for this increase, according to experts, is the war in Iran, which significantly disrupts key supply chains, especially for oil and metals.
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Main Predictions of the World Bank for 2026
According to the updated forecast, the composite index of commodity prices, formed by the World Bank, will rise by 16% in 2026. This will mark the first significant annual jump since the onset of the large-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, which has also caused significant fluctuations in energy markets.
- The energy price index, under an optimistic scenario of ending the most acute supply disruptions in May, is expected to rise by approximately 24%.
- The average price of Brent crude oil is anticipated to increase to $86 per barrel, while at the beginning of the year, this figure was $60.
The military conflict in the Middle East has also negatively impacted the natural gas and fertilizer markets. World Bank experts note that the cost of fertilizers could rise by 31% in 2026. This poses serious risks to farmers’ incomes and yields in many countries around the world.
Impact on Food Security and Inflation
The closure of trade routes, rising freight costs, and increased fuel prices will inevitably contribute to the rise in prices of essential food products. Economists warn that if the price of oil exceeds $100 per barrel, around 45 million people worldwide could face acute food shortages.
“War hits the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then – food, and ultimately – through higher inflation. The poorest people, who spend the largest share of their income on food and fuel, will suffer the most. All of this serves as a reminder of a harsh truth: war is a step backward,” summarized the World Bank’s chief economist Indermit Gill.
In addition, the leadership of the International Monetary Fund has previously emphasized the risks of rising inflation and slowing global economic growth due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East.