The World Bank has released an updated forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth, indicating that economic growth will remain slow over the next two years. If the war ends, Ukraine’s economy may only have a chance to accelerate starting in 2026.
This is reported by Finway
The report, dedicated to the Europe and Central Asia region, notes that in 2024, Ukraine’s economic growth rate will slow to 2.9% compared to 5.5% in 2023. The main factors contributing to the decline in growth are reduced external demand, labor shortages, and disruptions in electricity supply caused by the war.
World Bank Forecasts
The World Bank predicts that growth in Ukraine will decrease to 2% this year before rising to 5.2% in 2026,
“provided that hostilities cease and recovery begins”
. It is also noted that the average growth across developing economies in Europe and Central Asia will slow to 2.5% in 2025-2026 amid global uncertainty. In 2023, growth was 3.7%, and in 2024, it is expected to be 3.6%.
Assessment by the National Bank of Ukraine
The National Bank of Ukraine has lowered its expectations for real GDP growth in 2025 to 3.1% in its April forecast. According to new estimates, the economy is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2026 (previous forecast was 4.0%), and in 2027, GDP is projected to increase by 3.9% (previous forecast was 4.2%).
According to data from the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 will slow to 2.9% compared to 5.5% in 2023. The budget for 2025 includes a GDP growth forecast of 2.7% per year.
The International Monetary Fund also revised its baseline scenario in March, according to which the war between Russia and Ukraine is expected to end by late 2025. This scenario anticipates Ukraine’s economic growth of 2-3% in 2025 and an acceleration to 4.5% in 2026.