In its new forecast, the World Bank reported that negotiations for a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine began in early 2025; however, the prospects for achieving long-term peace remain uncertain. Despite this, the bank’s experts expect that Ukraine’s economy will continue to develop, and by 2026, GDP growth could reach 5.2%.
This is reported by Finway
Expectations for the End of Hostilities and Economic Recovery
According to the World Bank’s assessment, the scenario of accelerated economic growth assumes that the Russian invasion will continue until the end of 2025, after which the intensity of hostilities will gradually decrease. A sharp increase in investments in the manufacturing sector and the reconstruction of the country is forecasted for 2026. Despite this, exports will remain limited due to the challenging situation in international markets and high economic uncertainty.
“will continue until the end of 2025, after which active hostilities will begin to decline.”
Cost of Recovery and the Role of International Support
According to the World Bank’s calculations, the total costs for the reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine amount to $524 billion, which is nearly three times the expected GDP of the country in 2024. Experts warn that in the absence of a sustainable peace agreement, the continuation or escalation of the conflict could further undermine the Ukrainian economy and maintain a high level of geopolitical tension.
The report emphasizes that support from European Union countries and the United States is crucial for Ukraine’s economic stability and future development. Special attention is given to the fact that the World Bank assesses EU assistance as significantly exceeding support from other partners.