Ukraine risks losing its status as the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil due to a significant decline in the yield of this crop. This situation paves the way for the Russian Federation to take the lead in the global market, as Russia gradually catches up to Ukrainian export volumes despite its own issues with declining yields.
This is reported by Finway
Reduction in Harvest and Decrease in Oil Content
In 2025, the sunflower harvest in Ukraine is expected to be only about 10 million tons, down from previous forecasts of 13.5 million tons and slightly below last year’s result of 10.2 million tons. In addition to the decrease in volumes, experts are also noting a drop in seed oil content: while last year this figure reached a record 50-52%, it has now decreased to 48-50%.
Increased Competition in the Global Market
In the 2024-2025 marketing year, Ukraine exported 4.73 million tons of sunflower oil, while Russia reached a nearly equivalent level of 4.5 million tons. Competition is particularly fierce in the markets of China and India, where Ukrainian oil is gradually losing ground to Russian products.
Global demand for sunflower oil has been declining over the past few years. Experts note that palm, soybean, and canola oils are gradually displacing sunflower oil from the international vegetable oil market.
In this regard, due to declining yields, our country is being caught up by the aggressor nation, Russia. The Russian Federation is also facing a decrease in sunflower yields, but this season it will export 4.5 million tons of oil abroad, which is nearly equal to Ukrainian exports.