In the second quarter of 2025, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2024. In comparison, this figure was 0.9% in the first quarter of 2025. According to the State Statistics Service, compared to the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted GDP growth was 0.2%.
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Updated Economic Growth Forecasts
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine revised its economic growth forecast for 2025, lowering it to 2.1% from the previous 3.1% announced in April. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economy and the Cabinet of Ministers remain more optimistic, maintaining their forecast at 2.7%.
According to NBU data, the growth of real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year was 1.1%. This is below the previous forecast of 1.6%. The updated forecast for the third quarter of 2025 anticipates growth of 2.4% (previously forecasted at 3.5%), while for the fourth quarter, it is projected at 3.5% instead of the previously expected 5.9%.
GDP Dynamics in Previous Years
According to the State Statistics Service, in 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 2.9%. In comparison, in 2023, the country’s economy grew by 5.5%, while in 2022, a significant decline of 28.8% was recorded. The quarterly dynamics of GDP in 2024 were as follows: in the fourth quarter, there was a slight decrease of 0.1%, while in the third quarter, growth was 2.2%, in the second quarter it was 4.0%, and in the first quarter, it was 6.8%.
“For the next year, the National Bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.3%, while the government estimates it at 2.4%.”
Thus, despite the positive dynamics, the pace of economic growth in Ukraine in 2025 remains moderate, and forecasts for the further development of the country’s economy have been somewhat adjusted downward.