Ukraine faces serious economic risks if a favorable peace agreement is not reached and it does not join the European Union. According to estimates by experts from the Polish Economic Institute, an unfavorable ceasefire would lead to a loss of national sovereignty, restrict access to the Black Sea — the main export channel, and jeopardize the prospects for large-scale reconstruction and economic development of the country.
This is reported by Finway
Modeling Scenarios for Ukraine’s Economy
Experts considered several possible scenarios for the future development of events. In the case of Ukraine’s integration into the EU, the country’s GDP could grow by between 2% and 26%, depending on the dynamics of reforms and the level of support. However, in the fourth scenario, where Ukraine remains outside European structures and suffers defeat in the war, the forecasts are significantly more pessimistic.
“An unfavorable ceasefire for Ukraine would mean vassal dependence on Russia, resulting in the destruction of hopes for significant reconstruction, a successful economic future, and full national sovereignty.”
Impact on Regional Economy and Investments
In such a negative scenario, Ukraine could lose over 22% of its gross domestic product, complicating the economic situation not only for the country but for the entire region. In particular, modeling indicates a potential decrease in the GDP of Central European countries by approximately 0.1%. Experts note that the actual losses could be even greater due to weakened regional security, which would negatively affect the investment attractiveness of neighboring countries to Ukraine.