The National Bank of Ukraine has published an updated macroeconomic forecast, according to which inflation in the country will decrease to 9.2% by the end of 2025. This figure is expected to approach the target level of 5% in 2027. The main factors contributing to the slowdown in inflation will be the high supply of food and improved grain harvests. At the same time, risks remain related to electricity shortages, supply disruptions, and increases in administratively regulated tariffs.
This is reported by Finway
GDP Dynamics and Other Macroeconomic Indicators
It is expected that the growth of gross domestic product will be 1.9% in 2025. This forecast has been downgraded due to extensive infrastructure damage, losses in gas extraction capacities, and weaker results in the second quarter of the year. In 2026, the pace of economic recovery is expected to remain moderate at around 2%, influenced by prolonged security risks and electricity shortages. However, by 2027, the economy is expected to accelerate growth to 2.8% due to larger harvests and increased investment in the country’s reconstruction and defense sector.
Unemployment Rate, Salaries, and Budget Deficit
According to the NBU forecast, the unemployment rate will decrease to approximately 11% in 2025, to 10% in 2026, and to 9% in 2027. Real wages are expected to grow by 6% in 2025 and by 4-5% annually in 2026-2027. At the same time, the labor shortage will remain a limiting factor for production development.
The budget deficit in 2025 is projected to be around 25% of GDP, gradually decreasing to 19% in 2026 and 14% in 2027. The main sources of covering the deficit will be external revenues: in 2025, they are estimated at $51.5 billion, in 2026 at over $45 billion, and in 2027 at $39 billion.
Inflation in Ukraine, according to the baseline scenario, will decrease to 9.2% by the end of 2025 and approach the target figure of 5% in 2027