In Ukraine, the risk of a quality wheat shortage is increasing, which may lead to higher prices for flour and bread. The reason for this is the active export of grain, which may leave domestic flour mills short of raw materials to meet internal needs. Thus, the food security of the state is under threat.
This is reported by Finway
What Are the Prospects for Wheat Production in 2025/26
According to forecasts, in the marketing year 2025/26, Ukraine is expected to produce about 21 million tons of wheat, of which 10.3 million tons will be for food. However, the volumes of 1st and 2nd class wheat, which are necessary for producing bread-quality flour, will amount to only 1.7 million tons. At the same time, competition between processors and exporters for quality grain is intensifying, and farmers are in no hurry to sell their stocks, having the option to store grain for several years.
“We are already seeing that competition between processors and exporters for quality wheat is increasing, and farmers, having the ability to store grain for several years, are not rushing to sell it. This creates risks for price stability and the availability of flour and bakery products for consumers,” explained Rybychynskyi.
The Situation with Rye and Flour Prices
Additionally, the situation is complicated by a rye shortage – domestic production does not meet market demand, and imports are rising. If last season 1,600 tons of rye were imported, this season it is already about 9,000 tons. This indicates the formation of a persistent raw material deficit.
Rodion Rybychynskyi emphasizes that in such a situation, there is a high risk of further price increases for flour. The shortage of food grain could significantly impact the country’s food security.
Problems with quality raw materials are also confirmed by representatives of the bakery industry. The first vice president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers, Yurii Duchenko, noted that agricultural producers are reluctant to supply second-grade flour to the domestic market, without which it is impossible to produce higher-grade flour. Typically, such grain is exported or stored in reserves, which causes milling enterprises to face difficulties in forming sufficient batches to load their capacities.
Even during the active harvest season, flour prices remain high. Currently, a ton of higher-grade wheat flour costs about 15,000 hryvnias, while first-grade flour is 14,500 hryvnias. By the end of the year, the price may rise by another 2,000 hryvnias per ton.