Analysts from the investment company ICU predict that the Ukrainian economy will show slow growth starting from the third quarter of 2024. The pace of recovery remains low, as restrictions on reducing the budget deficit and government expenditures significantly impact economic growth in the near future.
This is reported by Finway
It is expected that in 2025, the economy will grow by 3% due to a recovery in household consumption and better harvests. These factors, along with positive changes in the agri-food sector, will support the stabilization of economic indicators.
According to forecasts, annual inflation will begin to sharply slow down from June 2025, related to the high base from the previous year and an increase in the supply of agricultural products. By the end of the year, consumer price growth may decrease to 7-8%.
The National Bank of Ukraine plans to maintain the key interest rate at the current level until September, after which it is likely to implement three reductions of 50 basis points each by the end of the year. This decision will help support economic activity and the stability of the financial system.
Additionally, Ukraine is expected to receive over $50 billion in 2025, which will significantly increase the NBU’s reserves and provide more resources to support the hryvnia’s exchange rate. Forecasts suggest that by the end of 2025, the exchange rate will be ₴43.5 per $1. The budget deficit will be almost entirely covered by external assistance.