A noticeable increase in the official dollar exchange rate is anticipated in Ukraine. Experts believe that in June it will fluctuate between 41.6 and 42 hryvnias. As of Monday, May 24, the National Bank of Ukraine updated the rate to 41.51 hryvnias, which is 1 kopeck higher than the previous rate.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Economic Factors
The head of the analytical department at “Financial Pulse,” Dilyara Mustafaieva, noted that a number of economic factors will influence the currency market in June. In particular, the policy of the National Bank will be crucial. According to her, a further weakening of inflationary pressure is expected, which will create conditions for stabilizing the exchange rate situation.
“At the same time, it is important to consider the operation of the ‘managed flexibility’ regime, under which the NBU retains the ability to intervene quickly through currency interventions to smooth out imbalances between supply and demand. This strategy minimizes the risks of sharp currency fluctuations,” the expert explained.
She also emphasized that exchange rate fluctuations will be diverse, and the difference between buying and selling rates will remain minimal. At the same time, the interbank and cash market rates will be virtually identical.
Importance of External Financial Support
The economic dynamics and the situation in key sectors of the economy play a significant role in the stability of the currency market. Mustafaieva noted that in June, the adaptation of Ukrainian exports to new cooperation conditions with the EU under the free trade agreement after the expiration of the economic visa-free regime will be important. It is expected that export volumes will temporarily decrease due to the reintroduction of restrictions on certain types of products and the imposition of new tariffs.
“At the same time, the EU has maintained preferences for metallurgical products. This will partially mitigate the current losses in foreign currency earnings,” she explained.
As Mustafaieva mentioned, by the end of April, Ukraine’s international reserves reached a historical maximum of 46.7 billion dollars, creating a “safety cushion” in case of a temporary reduction in foreign currency inflows.
The expert also emphasized the importance of external financial support, which helps maintain budget balance and limit pressure on the currency market.
Regarding the military situation, expectations of reduced combat activity may positively affect consumer sentiment, but, according to her, these processes remain dynamic and unpredictable.
Overall, in Mustafaieva’s opinion, the currency market is likely to remain stable in June. The National Bank will continue to monitor the situation, and exchange rate fluctuations will be controlled and predictable.