In the first half of 2025, the federal budget deficit of the Russian Federation amounted to 3.7 trillion rubles, which is 97% of the annual plan. This surge in the deficit is linked to a sharp decline in oil and gas revenues: in May and June, these receipts were 35% lower than in the same period of 2024. As a result, the deficit exceeded the figure for the first half of last year by more than four times.
This is reported by Finway
GDP Contraction and Rising Fiscal Risks
Against the backdrop of budgetary issues, the Russian economy is also slowing down. In the first quarter of 2025, the real gross domestic product of the country decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter. This indicates that the Russian economy is approaching recession. Ongoing labor and investment restrictions are exacerbating fiscal risks and may become a significant drag on economic growth throughout the year.
Mass Closure of Enterprises and Growth Forecast
According to Rosstat data, in the first half of 2025, 141,000 companies ceased operations in Russia, while only 95,000 new businesses were created. For the first time since 2022, the number of closed enterprises exceeded the number of openings. The highest number of closures occurred in the trade, construction, and manufacturing sectors.
“Business mortality” in Russia has exceeded “birth rates” for the first time since 2022.
According to estimates from the Central Bank of Russia, the country’s economy may grow by only 1–2% in 2025, with growth rates expected to slow down by the end of the year. For 2026, an even weaker growth forecast is anticipated — within the range of 0.5–1.5%.