On Monday, oil prices showed a slight increase amid escalating protests in Iran, raising concerns about the stability of supplies from one of OPEC’s key producers. At the same time, the market reacted to attempts to restore oil exports from Venezuela, as well as expectations of oversupply in 2026, which tempered further price increases.
This is reported by Finway
Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact on the Oil Market
Brent crude futures rose by 5 cents, reaching $63.39 per barrel. U.S. oil WTI increased by 4 cents to $59.16 per barrel. Last week, both instruments showed an increase of more than 3% — the largest weekly rise since October, resulting from the intensification of the crackdown on mass demonstrations in Iran that have been ongoing since 2022.
According to Saul Kavonic, head of energy market research at MST Marquee, while there has been some premium built into oil prices recently, the market still underestimates the likelihood of a broader conflict surrounding Iran, which could potentially impact supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The market is saying: show me a real supply disruption before I react significantly,” he added.
During the civil unrest in Iran, over 500 people have reportedly died, according to human rights organizations. Analysts at ANZ, led by Daniel Hynes, note that amid the protests, there are calls for oil industry workers to stop working, and the situation could jeopardize the disruption of at least 1.9 million barrels per day of oil exports.
Restoration of Exports from Venezuela and the Situation in Russia
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed readiness to intervene if force is used against protesters in Iran. He is expected to meet with key advisors on Tuesday to discuss possible actions regarding the Iranian situation.
Venezuela is likely to restore oil exports following the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro. Last week, Donald Trump announced that the authorities in Caracas are ready to deliver up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil, currently under sanctions, to the U.S. According to sources familiar with the process, this has already prompted an active search for tankers and the organization of logistics for the safe transportation of crude from Venezuelan ports, which are in poor condition. Trafigura announced that their first vessel will be loaded as early as next week.
Senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, Priyanka Sachdeva, predicts that oil prices will remain within defined ranges unless there is a significant increase in demand or serious supply disruptions. At the same time, she noted that futures prices are increasingly factoring in the risks of oversupply as 2026 approaches.
Moreover, investors are closely monitoring potential oil supply disruptions from Russia due to ongoing attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure and the potential tightening of U.S. sanctions against the Russian energy sector.