The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its forecast for the growth of real gross domestic product in 2025, stating that the growth will be 3.1%. This is slightly lower than previous expectations formed at the beginning of the year.
This is reported by Finway
Main Factors Affecting the Economy
The key restraining factors for economic development remain uncertainty and the prolonged war. Currently, Ukraine is facing a significant shortage of skilled labor, which limits production potential. The ongoing destruction of production capacities, including as a result of hostilities, also has a considerable negative impact. This forces businesses to be cautious about capital investments, especially in production expansion.
Additionally, the destruction of gas infrastructure due to Russian shelling poses further challenges. As a result, Ukraine is forced to reduce its own gas production and increase imports, which also negatively affects economic activity.
Drivers of Growth and Investment
According to the NBU, the main driver of economic growth remains consumer demand, supported by rising real incomes. High budget expenditures on defense also play a significant role: a substantial portion of these funds is directed towards purchasing products from Ukrainian enterprises, supporting the domestic market.
Despite cautious investment sentiments, the private sector continues to invest in infrastructure and energy supply restoration, which helps sustain economic activity.
According to the National Bank’s forecasts, Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2025 – this is slightly less than expected at the beginning of the year. The economy is primarily restrained by uncertainty and the prolonged war. It is noted that there remains a significant shortage of skilled labor.