The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in December shows a trend of slow growth. The economic situation and seasonal factors create increased pressure on the currency market, traditionally making the first winter month one of the most active of the year.
This is reported by Finway
Main Reasons for the Dollar Exchange Rate Increase
According to Taras Lesovyi, director of the financial markets and investment activities department at Globus Bank, the energy situation significantly impacts the currency market at the end of November and the beginning of December. Due to power outages, there is an increased demand for cash currency among the population, which is trying to protect its savings from further depreciation of the hryvnia and potential price increases. At the same time, entrepreneurs are changing their pricing policies due to rising logistics costs and increased expenses for alternative power sources.
“At the same time, entrepreneurs have begun to revise their pricing policies due to the rising costs of logistics and increased expenses for backup power sources,” the expert explained.
Stabilization Strategies and December Forecast
An important factor in stabilizing the exchange rate remains the anticipated policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. It is likely that the NBU will maintain the discount rate at 15.5%, which will help avoid sharp currency fluctuations. Banks are offering attractive conditions for hryvnia deposits, and some financial institutions are willing to provide rates of up to 18% per annum with additional bonuses until the end of the year.
Significant international reserves of Ukraine, which are at a historically high level of about $50 billion, play a crucial role. This allows the National Bank to intervene quickly in the market and smooth out peak imbalances between supply and demand.
December is traditionally a dynamic month for the currency market due to seasonal factors and the end of the budget year. More free hryvnias appear in circulation in the form of bonuses, dividends, and annual payouts, part of which the population converts into foreign currency. This year, seasonal demand for currency is expected to be more moderate: while last December the demand exceeded supply by 30-40%, in December 2025 this figure is forecasted to be around 15-20%.
It is expected that the depreciation of the hryvnia in December will remain controlled. According to experts’ estimates, the dollar exchange rate may range between 43-43.5 hryvnias per dollar, while the euro is expected to be in the range of 49.5-51 hryvnias per euro.