The National Bank of Ukraine has decided for the fifth consecutive time to maintain the key rate at 15.5%. The regulator noted that, despite a gradual slowdown in inflation in recent months, inflation expectations remain elevated, and the risks of price increases are heightened due to energy resource shortages and rising budget expenditures. The ongoing full-scale war remains the main factor of uncertainty for the economic situation and inflation.
This is reported by Finway
Monetary Policy and NBU Goals
“The NBU will maintain relatively tight monetary conditions to preserve the stability of the currency market and the attractiveness of savings in hryvnias, and to ensure a sustainable reduction in inflation to the target of 5% over the policy horizon,” the National Bank added.
Additionally, the National Bank has lowered its growth forecast for Ukraine’s economy for 2025 for the fourth time this year – now it is expected to be only 1.9% instead of earlier, higher estimates. At the same time, according to NBU forecasts, real GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2026 and by 2.8% in 2027. This dynamic is associated with the gradual increase in harvests, an increase in investments for the country’s reconstruction, and the development of the defense industry. An additional positive impact on the economy is anticipated due to Ukraine’s further integration into the EU.
Inflation and International Reserves Forecasts
The NBU has also improved its inflation estimates: by the end of the current year, it will be 9.2%, decreasing to 6.6% in 2026, and reaching the target level of 5% by the end of 2027. At the same time, the NBU has raised its forecasts for international reserves: in 2026, they could increase to $52.2 billion (previously expected to be $44.7 billion), and in 2027 – to $59.2 billion (previous forecast – $45.2 billion). Such growth is possible due to stable inflows of international financial support, particularly from reparations loans based on frozen Russian assets.