The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts a decrease in the inflation rate to 8.7% by the end of 2025. It is expected that inflation will begin to gradually decline in the summer, reaching a single-digit figure by the end of the year. This was stated by NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshny during a briefing.
This is reported by Finway
“According to the NBU forecast, in the summer, the annual price growth will start to slow down across a wide range of goods and services. The expected increase in harvests will contribute to a reduction in food inflation starting from the third quarter and its stabilization at a relatively low level thereafter,” said Pyshny.
The NBU Chairman also pointed out that fundamental inflationary pressure will gradually decrease due to monetary policy measures, improvements in electricity supply, and more moderate pressure from the labor market. A significant factor will also be the decline in oil prices due to global trade confrontations.
“As a result, inflation will decrease to 8.7% by the end of 2025, and to the target of 5% in 2026,” added Pyshny.
He noted that at the beginning of the year, inflation was rising, reaching 14.6% in March on an annual basis. This dynamic is caused by residual effects from poor harvests last year, rising prices for excise goods, and increased costs for enterprises related to energy resources and wages, as well as sustained consumer demand.
“The Board of the National Bank has decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 15.5%. This decision will help maintain the stability of the currency market, preserve control over inflation expectations, and gradually slow inflation to the target of 5% within the policy horizon,” emphasized the NBU Chairman.