The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to maintain the key rate at 15.5%. This decision was announced on October 23 and corresponds to the current macroeconomic situation in the country.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing the NBU’s Decision
In recent months, there has been a gradual decrease in inflation in the country. At the same time, the National Bank notes that inflation expectations among the population and businesses remain elevated, and the risks of accelerating inflation are increasing due to a growing energy deficit and rising budgetary needs. The NBU’s statement emphasizes:
“Under these conditions, to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, the stability of the currency market, and a sustainable trend of reducing inflation to the target of 5% in the policy horizon, the NBU will support relatively tight monetary conditions. Inflation is decreasing; however, fundamental price pressures remain persistent, and expectations show no signs of sustainable improvement.”
According to the regulator, in September 2025, consumer inflation slowed to 11.9% year-on-year, and this trend continued in October. The reasons for the slowdown in prices were significantly better vegetable harvests compared to last year, which increased their supply in the market.
Core inflation in September also decreased, but not as actively — to 11% year-on-year. The main price pressure persists due to high business costs for wages and energy resources. As a result, certain components of core inflation are showing slow price declines or stability.
Monetary Policy and Prospects for Change
The NBU emphasizes that its monetary policy aims to achieve an inflation target of 5% in the medium term. Additional factors contributing to the slowdown in inflation include positive results from vegetable and grain harvests, as well as continued monetary measures to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets and the currency market.
The regulator forecasts a partial removal of imbalances in the labor market, which will contribute to a slowdown in the growth of real wages and reduce pressure on business costs. At the same time, the pace of inflation decline will be influenced by additional costs for enterprises to ensure uninterrupted operations amid electricity shortages and significant increases in administratively regulated prices.
According to the NBU’s forecast, inflation will gradually decrease: to 9.2% in 2025, to 6.6% in 2026, and to the target of 5% by the end of 2027.
Despite the ongoing economic growth, the National Bank expects that its pace will remain restrained due to the consequences of the war. The baseline scenario of the macroeconomic forecast, published in October, suggests that a start to lowering the key rate may be possible in the first quarter of 2026.
The next meeting of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine on monetary policy is scheduled for December 11.