Currently, approximately 1 million Ukrainian refugees reside in Poland, and despite the potential end of hostilities, they are likely to remain in the country. This is due to their successful integration into Polish society and the labor market. Ukrainians have already become an important part of the workforce, helping Poland to offset labor shortages and contributing to economic growth.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the Polish Economy
According to estimates by the international agency Fitch Ratings, the presence of Ukrainians has a positive effect on Poland’s macroeconomic indicators. The influx of new workers from Ukraine stimulates GDP growth and contributes to labor market stability. Experts are convinced that this trend will continue even if the war comes to an end.
“We are almost certain that a significant portion of these people (Ukrainian refugees — Ed.) will remain in Poland and contribute to the development of the Polish labor market and GDP growth, as well as, of course, other macroeconomic and fiscal indicators,” noted Milan Trajković, an analyst at Fitch Ratings on Poland.
Growth Forecasts and Fiscal Prospects
Fitch Ratings specialists predict that Poland’s economy will grow by 3% annually in 2025–2026, and in 2027, GDP growth rates could reach 3.1%. The Polish government is even more optimistic, expecting growth of up to 3.5% in 2026. Authorities also hope that the economic upturn will help reduce the excessive budget deficit, which stood at 6.6% of GDP in 2024. Poland aims to lower this figure to below 3% by 2028.