Analysts at the investment bank Goldman Sachs expect that by the end of 2026, the price of Brent crude oil could fall to approximately $50 per barrel. This forecast is linked to a significant expansion of the oil surplus in the global market.
This is reported by Finway
Reasons for the decline in Brent oil prices
According to experts’ estimates, by 2026, the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will hold about 33% of global oil reserves. Combined with weaker demand in these countries, this will put pressure on the market price of Brent, contributing to its further decline.
The bank’s specialists predict that in 2025, oil supply will consistently exceed demand. The surplus of oil, according to their calculations, will increase and average 1.8 million barrels per day. This will lead to a rise in global inventories of nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026.
The bank’s experts expect that next year, supply will consistently outpace demand. The oil surplus will increase and average 1.8 million barrels per day, resulting in a rise in global inventories of nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026.
Impact of China and current market dynamics
At the same time, a possible acceleration in the accumulation of oil reserves in China from 0.4 million barrels per day to 0.8 million since the beginning of the year may support the average Brent price in 2026. It is expected that throughout 2025, oil prices will remain close to the level of forward contracts; however, a subsequent decline is likely due to accelerated inventory growth in OECD countries.
As of Wednesday, Brent crude oil futures were trading at around $67 per barrel, indicating market expectations regarding future price volatility in the context of changes in the balance of supply and demand.