Chinese steelmaking enterprises are under pressure from prolonged low profitability, as the reduction of production capacities in the industry is occurring more slowly than anticipated, while steel export volumes remain elevated.
This is reported by Finway
Updated Forecasts for Leading Companies
Goldman Sachs Group, in its latest report, announced a decrease in financial forecasts for key industry players such as Baoshan Iron & Steel and Maanshan Iron & Steel for the 2026–2027 fiscal years. At the same time, even greater losses are expected for Angang Steel. The bank also revised its expectations for gross profit for rebar and hot-rolled products downward.
“We are observing a slower-than-expected increase in production capacities in the steel sector, while Chinese steel exports remain at a high level,” stated Goldman.
Impact on the Industry and Raw Material Market
Bank experts indicate that steel price growth in the near future will be moderate, and the overall outlook for the sector is less optimistic than before. According to analysts, the biggest challenges for so-called anti-involution measures to limit excess capacity remain the implementation of standards for ultra-low emissions and the reclassification of relevant companies. However, in the long term, reducing production capacities in the industry remains a priority.
Deteriorating financial forecasts for Chinese metallurgists may also exert pressure on the iron ore market. At the same time, high steel export volumes may partially mitigate this impact. According to Shanghai SteelHome E-Commerce Co., iron ore stocks at Chinese ports have reached their highest level since November 2024, and since the end of August 2025, the price of the raw material has consistently fluctuated between $102 and $108 per ton.