In May 2026, freight rates for transporting iron ore show slight fluctuations and remain within a narrow price corridor. According to Kallanish, as of May 22, the freight cost on the main route from Tubarão (Brazil) to Qingdao (China) was $36.15 per ton, which is 2% lower than the previous week when the price was $37 per ton. In comparison, at the end of April (on the 24th), the cost of this route was $33 per ton.
This is reported by Finway
Dynamics of freight rates on key routes
On the route from Western Australia to Qingdao, freight rates reached $15.25 per ton on May 22, slightly exceeding last week’s figure ($15.45 per ton). Over the month, transportation costs increased by 17.3% since April 24.
The overall Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which accounts for average rates for Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax vessels, rose to 2991 on May 22. This followed five consecutive sessions of decline, attributed to rising rates in the Capesize segment. However, compared to the previous week, the index decreased by 5% — the worst weekly result since early March.
“The Capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal shipments of 150,000 tons, increased by 120 points, or 2.5% from the previous session, to 4954 on May 22. Over the week, it fell by approximately 4.2%. The average daily earnings of vessels in this segment rose by $1093, to $41,428.”
At the same time, the Panamax index, which records rates for transporting coal and grain of 60,000 to 70,000 tons, decreased by 53 points (2.3%) compared to the previous session on May 22. Over the week, the figure dropped by nearly 12%, and the average daily earnings of vessels in this class fell by $481, to $20,004.
Market trends and the impact of demand from China
In the first quarter of 2026, according to Hellenic Shipping News, the bulk carrier market did not exhibit the typical seasonal decline for this period. The average daily rate for Capesize vessels was around $23,000, which is 75% higher than last year’s level due to high demand for iron ore imports to China.
With the gradual ramp-up of the Simandu mining operation in Guinea, from where ore is transported to China over significant distances, a substantial increase in ton-miles is expected in the second quarter.
According to a report by Galbraiths published in early May, the dry bulk shipping market in the second quarter proved stronger than anticipated, linked to the active development of the Capesize segment, stable demand for iron ore, and growth in Atlantic ton-miles.
IG analysts note that the market is currently characterized by volatility and a reduction in the actual supply of vessels. Amid uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East, shipowners have the opportunity to maintain freight rates at current levels.
The main supporting factors for the Capesize segment remain iron ore shipments, which ensure steady supplies from Australia and Brazil, as well as the activation of exports from Simandu. Demand from China for iron ore may help maintain stability in this segment until the end of 2026.