The currency market in Ukraine has been experiencing a new phase of foreign currency growth since April 2026. The euro exchange rate is confidently setting historical highs, approaching the 52 UAH mark, while the dollar exceeds 44 UAH. Simultaneously, the Polish zloty is also strengthening. Experts explain that the current situation is the result of both global and domestic factors.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of the Dollar and International Markets
The main benchmark for other currencies is the dollar exchange rate. The National Bank of Ukraine sets the official exchange rate only for the American currency, while all others are formed according to the cross-rates of the dollar to these currencies. As noted by the Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club, Oleg Pendzin, “the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the euro is calculated quite easily: the hryvnia to dollar rate is taken and multiplied by the cross-rate of the dollar to the euro. As a result, you get the indicator of the euro’s appreciation against the dollar, which automatically affects the hryvnia to euro ratio.”
“The exchange rate of the hryvnia to the euro is calculated quite easily: the hryvnia to dollar rate is taken and multiplied by the cross-rate of the dollar to the euro. As a result, you get the indicator of the euro’s appreciation against the dollar, which automatically affects the hryvnia to euro ratio,” the economist explained.
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchishin adds that the euro’s appreciation is explained by its strengthening in global markets. The European currency has recently been rising against the dollar, influenced by market expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank due to accelerating inflation. This makes the euro more attractive to investors and stimulates its appreciation.
Role of the National Bank and Domestic Factors
The situation in the domestic currency market is exacerbated by the fact that the National Bank of Ukraine has recently reduced its presence in the market. According to Andriy Shevchishin, the regulator has started to conserve reserves more, leading to a currency shortage in the interbank market primarily due to reduced sales from exporters. At the same time, as Oleg Pendzin emphasizes, “there is no fully-fledged currency market in Ukraine. The only seller of dollars in the country is the regulator, which essentially determines the rate. That is, the National Bank of Ukraine sets the rules of the game and, as a result, cannot lose.”
Analysts also point to the impact of the international situation: due to problems in the Middle East and North Africa, Ukrainian exporters have limited opportunities, reducing currency earnings and, consequently, the supply of currency in the interbank market. An additional factor is the growing deficit of the state budget, which creates additional demand for currency to finance expenditures.
Public Behavior and Strategies for Protecting Savings
Amid currency fluctuations, the public is seeking ways to preserve their money. Oleg Pendzin advises avoiding emotional decisions during periods of currency growth: purchasing currency during peak rises will only profit speculators. At the same time, according to Andriy Shevchishin, there is currently no rush among the public in the cash market – demand remains relatively stable.
In terms of profitability, currency instruments currently outperform hryvnia deposits due to inflation and the devaluation of the national currency. However, experts emphasize that short-term fluctuations in currency rates should not lead to panic actions. The National Bank directs its policy towards ensuring the balance of the exchange rate in the long term, considering the level of inflation.
Forecasts suggest that in the coming days, the dollar exchange rate is expected to be within 43.5–44.25 UAH, while the euro is projected to be in the range of 49.5–52 UAH. The situation remains dynamic, and experts advise monitoring updates on market trends while maintaining a rational approach to preserving personal finances.