An annual conference titled “Living on Interest” took place in Kyiv, gathering leading experts and investors to discuss the state of Ukraine’s economy and investment prospects amid the war. The event was organized by the financial portals Finance.ua and “Minfin.”
This is reported by Finway
State of the Economy and Prospects for 2025
Oleksandr Martynenko, head of the corporate department at ICU, delivered a detailed analysis of the current economic situation. According to him, Ukraine’s economy is currently experiencing stagnation, primarily due to the ongoing war. The lack of stable economic growth is attributed to the destruction of industry and limited development potential due to hostilities.
Martynenko reminded that after the restoration of the transport corridor from the Black Sea in 2023, there was a brief increase in production and consumption. However, these positive trends are no longer observed in 2025. By the end of the year, a slight economic recovery is expected due to the agricultural harvest, but GDP growth will only be around 2.25%. For 2026, the expert does not forecast higher growth rates.
“At the same time, external imbalances remain a long-term issue, particularly concerning the trade balance deficit. The war is ongoing, industry is being destroyed, and there is currently no potential for transport flows. We constantly see that imports are rising: energy equipment and defense-related flows are coming in. All of this keeps imports at pre-war levels. The pre-war year of 2021 and the current 2025 have the same levels of imports. Meanwhile, exports account for 80%,” noted Martynenko.
Currency Market and Exchange Rate Forecast for 2026
The government is actively attracting international financial assistance, which allows the National Bank of Ukraine to effectively monitor the situation in the currency market. Thanks to this support, the exchange rate of the hryvnia remains stable: after weakening in previous years, the situation stabilized from mid-2024, and the NBU currently does not plan to change its policy.
Forecasts suggest that by the end of 2025, the exchange rate of the hryvnia will not exceed 42–42.5 hryvnias per dollar. International assistance helps maintain record international reserves, enabling effective control over market fluctuations.
For 2026, Martynenko forecasts an exchange rate of 44.5 hryvnias per dollar. This dynamic is attributed to the current economic situation, external imbalances, and the impact of the war on export-import operations.