In the coming month and a half, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine is expected to remain stable within the range of 41.5-42 hryvnias per dollar, according to experts. This forecast is driven by several seasonal and market factors.
This is reported by Finway
Seasonal Factors and the Impact of the National Bank
The autumn period is usually accompanied by an increase in the dollar exchange rate due to heightened business activity and increased imports of energy resources. However, the current exchange rate formation regime implemented in Ukraine allows for managed flexibility, enabling the National Bank to effectively curb sharp currency fluctuations.
Anna Zolotko, a board member and director of the treasury operations department at Unex Bank, notes that the hryvnia may experience moderate pressure at the beginning of autumn, but sharp changes are not anticipated given the active support from the NBU.
“The main factors for stability are the easing of some currency restrictions, active actions by the regulator, seasonal revenues from exports, and support from international partners. By operating under a regime of managed flexibility, the NBU combines market signals with regular support operations, which mitigates seasonal fluctuations.”
Market Dynamics and Analysts’ Opinions
Experts from the investment group ICU are convinced that the dollar is likely to remain within the range of 41.5-42 hryvnias in the coming month and a half. They point out that this price corridor has been well-established for a long time, and the impact of seasonal factors, if noticeable, will not exceed 30-50 kopecks. Thus, significant deviations from the current range are not expected.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar exchange rate for Monday, August 18, at 41.34 hryvnias, indicating a strengthening of the hryvnia by 11 kopecks. At the same time, regarding the euro, the hryvnia also shows positive dynamics — the official euro exchange rate was 48.31 hryvnias, which is 13 kopecks lower than the previous figure.
According to analyst Oleksii Kozyrev, on Saturday, August 16, most exchange offices and bank branches will accept dollars at a rate ranging from 41.10 to 41.35 hryvnias, while sales will be from 41.40 to 41.80 hryvnias. In his opinion, the euro will be within the range of: acceptance from 47.90 to 48.40 hryvnias, sales from 48.45 to 48.80 hryvnias.