A CryptoQuant analyst using the pseudonym AxelAdlerJr reported that the Bitcoin market is in the final phase of a “bullish” cycle. According to his assessment, the peak growth may occur in October-November 2025.
This is reported by Finway
Market Indicators and Long-Term Investor Behavior
According to the expert’s analysis, more than 500 days have passed since the last halving, indicating the approach of the final stage of the current market cycle, as observed in previous years. Data from the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator, which tracks the volume of coins sold, showed a sharp increase in March when the price of Bitcoin reached $70,000. However, subsequent waves of selling near the $98,000 and $117,000 levels were less intense.
This similar dynamic suggests that long-term holders (LTH) are not exiting the market en masse but are gradually liquidating their assets, which reduces pressure on the market and makes the sell-off less abrupt.
“Such segmented selling indicates a more resilient restructuring—largely due to institutional demand: supply comes in batches immediately after new historical highs, and the market absorbs it, leading to more elongated peaks,” the expert noted.
Mechanisms for Forming the Final Peak
The analyst believes that the defining factor for the final peak will be the so-called Peak Flag—a situation where the market price of Bitcoin rises approximately 11 times compared to the realized value of assets held by early investors. It is anticipated that this will be accompanied by a sharp increase in spending by experienced holders and short-term volatility. Most likely, such a situation in the market could arise in October-November 2025.
The expert also noted that the Bitcoin market has begun to exhibit new behavior due to reduced volatility: long-term investors are no longer exiting the market after each significant price spike, as was the case before. The main feature of the current cycle is a massive sell-off of assets in the middle phase, even before the halving.