Bitcoin is at an important zone where a cost basis test is taking place for spot ETF investors and short-term large players. Analysts note that these two groups are currently determining the future price movement of the first cryptocurrency.
This is reported by Finway
Position of ETF Investors and Short-Term Whales
According to an analytical report, as of April 21, 2026, the realized price for spot ETF holders is around $76,000, which nearly coincides with the current market price of Bitcoin. Since its launch in January, this category of investors has been in a state of unrealized losses and is only now approaching the breakeven point.
A similar situation is observed among short-term whales, who, according to experts, entered Bitcoin at an average price of around $79,000. Currently, their total unrealized losses exceed $4 billion, and the average figure over the last 30 days reaches $9 billion. This indicates a prolonged period of pressure for this group of traders.
Impact of the Psychological Barrier at $80,000
Experts also mentioned historical experience. In January, when the price of Bitcoin rose to $95,000, short-term whales that returned to profitability began actively taking profits. This aligns with on-chain data: when investors reach breakeven after prolonged losses, there is often an increase in selling pressure.
According to analysts, the range of $76,000–$80,000 has become a zone of increased liquidity concentration, where most positions of the aforementioned groups are on the brink of profit and loss.
“For these groups, the $80,000 mark is not just a round number, but a psychological and financial threshold between relief and further losses. […] A clear consolidation above $80,000 will signal that this level has transformed from resistance to support. At the same time, a rejection of this level will confirm it as a supply zone, prolonging the loss period for both groups in Q2,” concluded CryptoQuant.
Previously, Wintermute experts noted that achieving a truce between the USA and Iran could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin to rise to $80,000.