In 2026, bread prices in Ukraine may significantly increase, warn representatives of the agricultural sector. Predictions about the price hike vary: some experts expect an increase of up to 25%, while others believe the rise will be moderate.
This is reported by Finway
Main factors driving the increase in bread prices
According to Denis Marchuk, Deputy Head of the All-Ukrainian Agricultural Council, the formation of bread prices depends not so much on the cost of wheat, which accounts for about a quarter of the production cost, but on other components. Significant pressure on producers is created by expenses for electricity, fuel, logistics, and labor costs. The exchange rate also plays an important role, as many pieces of equipment and materials for production are purchased from abroad.
“The average price increase could reach 25%.”
Denis Marchuk emphasizes that the trend of rising prices for bakery products will continue, and the average price increase could very well reach 25% over the year. The main reasons remain the consequences of the war, particularly the rising costs of energy resources and transportation services, which directly affect the final price of bread for consumers.
Opinions from representatives of the bakery industry
At the same time, Alexander Taranenko, the First Vice President of the All-Ukrainian Bakers Association, expresses a more cautious assessment of the situation. He notes that there are currently no grounds for a sharp increase in prices or a bread shortage. According to him, a certain increase is possible mainly due to additional costs for electricity supply, especially during periods of using generators in the heat. In such cases, the price of a loaf may rise by 1–1.5 hryvnias, which is about 5%.
If the energy system operates without interruptions, producers will have the opportunity to maintain current price levels and avoid significant fluctuations in the bread market.
Experts add that the dynamics of prices for food products remain mixed. Certain categories of products may rise in price by as much as 50%, while the seasonal increase in the supply of vegetables, fruits, and other agricultural products during the summer period will contribute to a decrease in prices for those goods. Thus, consumers will observe varying price dynamics depending on the category of products.