The World Bank has released an updated forecast regarding the growth dynamics of Ukraine’s economy, indicating that in 2026, the country’s GDP will grow by only 2%, matching the level of 2025. The anticipated acceleration of economic development to 5% has been postponed to 2027. This information is included in the report «Economic Situation in the Europe and Central Asia Region: Jobs and Prosperity».
This is reported by Finway
«Economic growth in Ukraine is likely to slow to 2% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, as the prolonged Russian invasion affects investment and business activity,» the document emphasizes.
Key Factors Influencing the Economy
According to the report, Ukraine’s gas imports have reached their highest levels in the past two years, attributed to infrastructure damage and, consequently, limitations on domestic energy resource production. Additionally, a significant factor has been the decline in agricultural product exports. This has been influenced by adverse weather conditions and the European Union’s restoration of pre-invasion trade regimes, leading to increased restrictions on the export of key Ukrainian agricultural goods. In the first half of 2025, export volumes decreased by nearly 5%, primarily due to reduced shipments to the EU, which accounts for up to 60% of Ukrainian exports.
Labor Market and Sector Prospects
The World Bank highlighted that Ukraine’s economy is undergoing a transformation, creating conditions for the development of new sectors and increasing productivity in existing ones. In particular, the IT sector and digital industries have demonstrated resilience since February 2022 and are likely to contribute to employment growth in the coming years. Agriculture and agro-processing have remained Ukraine’s main competitive advantages since 2014. According to experts, productivity improvements and the development of processing capabilities can lead to the creation of new jobs. Meanwhile, logistics, energy, and construction are expected to become the main drivers of employment and economic growth during the country’s recovery.
Among new directions, an increase in the role of the defense industry and related sectors is anticipated due to technological advancements and stable demand. This opens up prospects for the employment of qualified specialists.
In the January report by the World Bank «Global Economic Prospects», the GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2025 was lowered to 2% (down from 6.5% in the previous forecast), while expectations for 2026 were improved to 7% (previously 5.1%). The National Bank of Ukraine has also revised its economic growth forecast: for 2025, to 3.1% from 3.6%, and for 2026, to 3.7% from 4.0%.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the growth rate of the global economy will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, and in 2026, growth may recover to 3%. This is below the January WEO forecasts, with the downward revision affecting nearly all countries, reflecting the direct consequences of new trade measures.