The return of Ukrainian citizens who were forced to leave the country due to the war primarily depends on the restoration of territorial integrity, stable security, and favorable economic conditions. These factors are crucial for making the decision to return, rather than just the cessation of hostilities.
This is reported by Finway
The Impact of Security and Territorial Integrity on Refugees’ Decisions
Analysts from the Kyiv Security Forum, based on a study by the Munich University Center for Economic Studies that surveyed over 2,500 Ukrainians in 30 European countries, analyzed the key factors influencing the desire to return home. Respondents were presented with various combinations of conditions to determine their weight in the decision-making process.
It turned out that the mere fact of the war ending or the formation of a peace agreement has almost no impact on refugees’ decisions. The most significant influence comes from the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within the borders of 1991 — this increases the likelihood of return by 10.8 percentage points even among those who left regions not occupied by Russia. Security guarantees remain important, particularly the country’s accession to NATO, which adds another 7.1 percentage points. Joining the EU increases the likelihood of return by 2.5 points.
The Role of Economic Factors in Citizens’ Return
Economic incentives, such as the availability of quality employment or an average income increase of 20%, raise the chances of return by 4.1 percentage points, while additional income increases them by 2.5 points. However, as experts note, even high salaries and job opportunities are not sufficiently attractive without guaranteed security and stability. The effect of economic factors is significantly amplified when combined with the restoration of territorial integrity.
“The effect of economic factors is tripled when combined with the restoration of territorial integrity, as even high salaries and job opportunities are unattractive in conditions of instability and the threat of new attacks.”
Predictions regarding the likelihood of refugees returning vary widely. In a negative scenario — loss of territories, lack of guarantees for sustainable peace, economic crisis, and corruption — only 2.7% of citizens may return home. In contrast, an optimistic scenario, which envisions territorial integrity, security guarantees, and positive economic conditions, allows for hopes of the return of up to 46.5% of Ukrainians currently abroad.