European countries are reaping significant economic benefits from the influx of Ukrainians seeking temporary protection, while Ukraine faces massive risks of losing human capital.
This is reported by Finway
Ukrainians Strengthen EU Economies, but Ukraine Loses Specialists
According to an analytical review by the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting “Financial Pulse”, over 4.2 million Ukrainian citizens hold temporary protection status in European Union countries. Most of them have already integrated into local labor markets, which significantly impacts the economic growth of the host countries.
“Ukrainians are actively working, paying taxes, and contributing to the economic growth of the countries that have granted them asylum. For example, the contribution of Ukrainians to Poland’s GDP growth in 2024 reached 2.7%. At the same time, these are the same citizens whose departure exacerbates problems within Ukraine itself—from labor shortages to a demographic crisis,” she noted.
According to estimates from the Center for Economic Strategy, about 70% of forced migrants from Ukraine have higher education, but are mostly forced to accept lower-skilled jobs. The main barriers remain language adaptation and the non-recognition of Ukrainian diplomas in EU countries.
Financial Impact for Donor Countries and Risks for Ukraine
The average salary level of Ukrainians abroad is one-third lower compared to local workers. However, even in such a situation, the contribution of Ukrainian migrants to the budgets of recipient countries is significant. In countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, tax revenues paid by Ukrainians already exceed the amounts of social support allocated for refugees.
In particular, last year in the Czech Republic, tax revenues from Ukrainians exceeded social payments for Ukrainian citizens with temporary protection status by $250 million. However, for Ukraine itself, the consequences of migration remain critical: according to recent surveys, only 43% of Ukrainian migrants consider the possibility of returning home, whereas in 2022, this figure was nearly 75%.
Experts emphasize that even if a portion of Ukrainian migrants do not return, the country’s economy could lose up to 7.8% of GDP each year. Experts urge the creation of conditions that will motivate citizens to return: affordable housing, new jobs, educational programs, support for children, and business incentives.