Analysts predict that due to the introduction of new trade rules with the European Union at the end of October, Ukrainian exporters could lose up to $1.14 billion annually compared to 2024, when temporary Autonomous Trade Measures were in effect. The biggest losses will be in wheat exports, which are estimated to decrease by $894 million per year.
This is reported by Finway
Main consequences of the new trade rules
In addition to wheat, exporters of sugar, barley, poultry, eggs, apple juice, and honey will also feel the negative impact. At the same time, Ukrainian producers have the opportunity to partially mitigate losses by redirecting exports to other markets or products, which could reduce overall losses to around $250 million per year.
Trade liberalization and expanded access to the EU market
When comparing the new conditions to the tariff quotas that were in place until June 2022, the current rules represent a significant liberalization of trade. The EU has completely eliminated four tariff quotas and expanded another 26, including for honey, sugar, barley groats, and bran. This opens up additional opportunities for duty-free exports from Ukraine to the EU worth $630 million annually.
“The new trade agreement with the EU aligns with the ambitions of Ukrainian exports for the next three years,” said Taras Kachka, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine.